經文：馬可福音13:1-5
1正當那時，有人將彼拉多使加利利人的血攙雜在他們祭物中的事告訴耶穌。
2耶穌說：「你們以為這些加利利人比眾加利利人更有罪，所以受這害嗎？
3我告訴你們，不是的！你們若不悔改，都要如此滅亡！
4從前西羅亞樓倒塌了，壓死十八個人；你們以為那些人比一切住在耶路撒冷的人更有罪嗎？
5我告訴你們，不是的！你們若不悔改，都要如此滅亡！」
彼拉多、西羅亞樓倒塌等事件，歷史記載不明。但從主耶穌「你們以為A比B更有罪嗎？（所以受這害）」的總結，可以知道當時的人對這些「受害者」的認知是「因罪而被上帝審判，所以受害」。
但主耶穌的總結點出了一個盲點：人們是在「相互比較」的基礎上去揣測＼論斷這些事件，而這樣的論斷也隱含著「活著的B自認為比受害的A更有義，所以沒有遭害」的想法。這是明顯的「倖存者偏誤」。
主耶穌兩度說：「我告訴你們，不是的！你們若不悔改，都要如此滅亡！」這段話強調了幾個重點：
1.否定一般人「A比B有罪（B比A更有義）」的判斷認知
這個否定，反面呈現了神對罪的認知與人不同。從亞當夏娃犯罪之始，人類已經帶的罪的血緣傳遞到世世代代，沒有誰能逃過罪的綑綁。而這罪在於對神的悖逆與偏離，也就是「射不中的」。人們的自以為義，永遠無法取代神的公義。
2.「悔改」的重要性
「救贖」完全是神主動的作為與計畫，因為人無法靠自力處理罪的問題。人唯有認罪悔改，才能領受神的救恩。
3.「若不悔改，就會滅亡」的必然性
因為「罪的工價乃是死」（羅6:23），所以人若不為自己的罪悔改，滅亡是必然的結果----而這與別人是否犯罪、是否受審判無關。
主耶穌此時就像一個先知，忠實地傳達了父神的旨意，也校正了屬人的眼光，不要只看到別人的不幸，而忘了自己其實也是個罪人，需要主耶穌的救恩。
Events such as Pilate’s actions and the collapse of the tower of Siloam are not clearly documented in historical records. However, from the way the Lord Jesus summarizes the situation—“Do you think that A was more sinful than B (and therefore suffered this calamity)?”—we can see that people at the time understood these “victims” as having suffered because they were judged by God for their sins.
Yet Jesus’ conclusion exposes a blind spot: people were speculating about and judging these events on the basis of comparison. Such judgment implicitly assumes that the surviving “B” considers himself more righteous than the afflicted “A,” and therefore believes he escaped disaster. This is a clear example of survivorship bias.
Twice the Lord Jesus declares, “I tell you, no! But unless you repent, you too will all perish!” This statement highlights several key points:
1. The rejection of the common assumption that “A is more sinful than B (and B is more righteous than A)”
This rejection reveals, by contrast, that God’s understanding of sin differs from that of humans. From the moment Adam and Eve sinned, sin has been transmitted through humanity from generation to generation, and no one can escape its bondage. Sin fundamentally consists of rebellion against God and deviation from His will—literally “missing the mark.” Human self-righteousness can never replace God’s righteousness.
2. The importance of repentance
Redemption is entirely God’s initiative and plan, because human beings are incapable of resolving the problem of sin by their own efforts. Only through confession and repentance can one receive God’s salvation.
3. The inevitability of perishing without repentance
Because “the wages of sin is death” (Romans 6:23), if a person does not repent of his own sin, destruction is an inevitable outcome—regardless of whether others have sinned or suffered judgment.
At this moment, the Lord Jesus acts like a prophet, faithfully proclaiming the will of the Father and correcting a purely human perspective. He redirects attention away from merely observing the misfortunes of others, reminding us that we ourselves are sinners in need of the salvation.
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